The polls convinced many that Clinton was headed to the White House. But the polls were misleading – and one behavioral scientist thinks emotion led respondents to mislead pollsters on purpose.
Academic rigour, journalistic flair
Articles on Polling
Displaying 121 - 140 of 165 articles
From undetected late swings, to pollster ‘herding’.
People around the world were shocked when Hillary Clinton, ahead in many polls, didn’t end up the U.S.‘ president-elect. But that doesn’t mean the polls themselves were wrong.
Forecasters have been left reeling once again after failing to predict the outcome of the US election.
Many pollsters are now eating humble pie.
Given the failure of British polls to predict the outcome of Brexit, is it possible Donald Trump could produce a surprise result of even greater proportions?
A look back at the polls shows just how popular Theresa May’s predecessor was.
Survey findings are typically considered in isolation in the media, with no understanding of context, of what is within and what is beyond the expected.
How did the Coalition go from a resounding victory in 2013 to the edge of electoral defeat?
How did the numbers of election 2016 fall across the country? And what seats are still in play?
The polling industry struggled to predict the last British election, and referendums are even harder.
The wane and wax of Euroscepticism in Britain.
The UK in a Changing EU app lets you choose which issues you feel are most important to you and use those to weight the outcomes.
When public opinion is as split as it is on the EU referendum, pollsters struggle to get it right.
The trend is headed in Leave’s favour.
The Remain campaign cites this survey as proof of the economic benefits of staying in the EU. Here’s the story behind the numbers.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale told Q&A that if there was a vote among people who are under 30 in Australia, there’d possibly be a Greens prime minister. What do the polls say?
Internet polls are offering up quite different results to phone polls. Here are a few suggestions as to why.
Using a new model that considers state-by-state polling, statisticians from Oklahoma State look at who would win the presidential election if it were held today.
Simply by voting in a church, you’re more likely to support a conservative cause or candidate.
Top contributors
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Paul Whiteley is a Friend of The Conversation.Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of Communication
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Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Professor, University of Sydney
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Professor of Electoral Geography, University of Sheffield
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Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Emeritus professor, Monash University
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Director, La Trobe Asia and Professor, La Trobe University, La Trobe University
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Southampton
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Professor of Political Communication, Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy, La Trobe University
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Assistant Professor of Mathematics -- Statistics, Knox College
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Professor of Research Methodology, Director of National Centre for Research Methods, University of Southampton
