Here’s what we still need to find out before we can know when we’ll be able to return to our pre-coronavirus ways.
To better understand how cancer tumors grow, mathematicians use diffusion models.
We’re on the road again. Getting enough COVID-19 vaccine to where it’s needed in a given time frame is the next logistical hurdle.
The R number fluctuates more as case numbers fall.
Many of the more formal models for predicting the pandemic try to understand why changes happen – but often it can be more accurate to ignore the reasons and simply look at the data.
The UK locked down too late and has been in catch-up mode ever since. But with contact tracing, it can turn things around.
The South African government and some of its advisors want to have the best of both worlds. They want to use incorrect predictions by early models about the COVID-19 pandemic to claim success.
Neuroscientist Karl Friston claims generative modelling techniques produce more valid predictions than conventional models, but the evidence so far is limited.
An easy question, but a difficult answer.
National models on the spread of COVID-19 have helped us through this crisis. But we’ll need local models to get us through the next stage.
Robert (Bob) Scholes, University of the Witwatersrand; Albertus J. Smit, University of the Western Cape; Francois Alwyn Engelbrecht, University of the Witwatersrand; Guy Franklin Midgley, Stellenbosch University; Jennifer Fitchett, University of the Witwatersrand; Neville Sweijd, Applied Centre for Climate and Earth Systems Science; Pedro M.S. Monteiro, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, and Pravesh Debba, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
The science to policy process that was developed to guide climate mitigation decisions can be applied to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, without having to be reinvented.
One practical exit strategy from lockdown would be identifying green zones, and progressively joining them together once it is safe to do so.
Policy-makers at various levels of government rely on models and simulations to make predictions about controlling the spread of COVID-19.
Scientific models can help us understand the important features of complex systems, but they need good data.
Study raises hopes that we may be closer to herd immunity than previously thought.
Models can predict the risk and spread of diseases and establish the time and place to implement optimal prevention and control mechanisms.
Predicting how a virus will spread — and its effects — relies on mathematically sound and accurate models that account for factors like weather patterns and human behaviour.
Strict quarantine measures have been shown to be more effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 than closing schools.
Should we close schools and workplaces now, or steadily introduce stricter social distancing measures over time? These mathematical models evaluate different approaches of flattening the curve.
My year of buying almost nothing saved me thousands of dollars – but also taught me valuable lessons as a teacher, including about the benefits of failure.