Making sense of the polls
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Donald Trump sealed the Republican nomination today, winning Indiana 53-37 over Ted Cruz with just 8% for John Kasich. After the loss, Cruz dropped out of the Republican nomination contest. Kasich has…
Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland…
Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trump’s massive vote majority gave him…
We have had three polls so far this week, with ReachTEL and Ipsos both showing a 50-50 tie, and Newspoll repeating last fortnight’s poll that had Labor ahead 51-49. Here is the poll table showing all polls…
Yesterday, Ted Cruz won all 13 delegates that were awarded at the Colorado Republican state convention; he had earlier won all 21 awarded at Congressional District (CD) conventions. Cruz is also likely…
This week’s Newspoll is the first since Turnbull became PM to have Labor in front, by a 51-49 margin, a 2% gain for Labor since last fortnight. The catalyst for this change was probably the state income…
On Monday, Turnbull announced that Parliament would be recalled on the 18 April so that the Senate could debate and vote on the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) bill. If the Senate…
Donald Trump’s highlight today was crushing Marco Rubio 46-27 in Rubio’s home state of Florida. He won every Floridian county except Miami-Dade, where Cuban Americans voted for Rubio. The defeat forced…
Ipsos has the Coalition leading by 53-47, a 1% gain for the Coalition since the February Ipsos. Primary votes are 45% for the Coalition (up 1), 31% for Labor (down 1) and 14% for the Greens (down 1). Respondent…
This week’s 50-50 Newspoll showed that last fortnight’s Newspoll was no fluke, and we also now have a 50-50 from Essential. Morgan is at 53-47 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote of only 29.5% in…