Making sense of the polls
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The Canadian election will be held on Monday 19 October, and results will be known during the afternoon of Tuesday 20 October Melbourne time. This election is of some interest to Australians because Canada’s…
The table below shows the results of the five polls that have been conducted since Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Australia’s PM. Three of these polls have Coalition leads and the other two are…
The Canning by-election was held yesterday. With counting final for election night, the Liberals’ Andrew Hastie has won by 55.0-45.0, a 6.9% swing to Labor. Primary votes were 46.4% for Hastie (down 4.7…
Last night Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott in a Liberal leadership spill, 54 votes to 44. As a result, Turnbull replaces Abbott as Australia’s Prime Minister. I analysed the polling effect of past…
The Canning by-election will be held next Saturday 19 September. Two polls have been released this week. A Galaxy robopoll of 557 respondents, conducted last Thursday night, gives the Liberals a 52-48…
The last two weeks have been marked by the Border Force fiasco in Melbourne, Dyson Heydon’s decision to continue as Trade Union Royal Commissioner, a weak economic growth report, and a continuing refugee…
There are some interesting international electoral events happening now. On 12 September, the UK Labour party will announce its new leader, and the most left wing candidate, Jeremy Corbyn, is expected…
Dyson Heydon, the Trade Union Royal Commissioner, has been in the political spotlight in the last week over claims that there is a reasonable apprehension of bias, and that he should resign as Commissioner…
Following the death in late July of WA Liberal MP Don Randall, a by-election was ordered in his seat of Canning on the 19 September. A Newspoll has the Liberals just ahead by 51-49, representing an 11…
Both major parties have had members involved in expenses scandals over the last week. Although these scandals would usually result in a “pox on both your houses” effect, this time Labor has been the clear…