Making sense of the polls
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Donald Trump won 7 of the 11 Super Tuesday states, to 3 for Ted Cruz and 1 for Marco Rubio. Trump’s best state was the Democratic stronghold of Massachusetts, where he won 49%. He also had solid wins in…
Hillary Clinton today crushed Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina Democratic primary by a 74-26 margin, winning every South Carolina county. According to exit polls, black voters made up 61% of the Democratic…
This week we had a shock 50-50 Newspoll result, a 3% gain for Labor since the last Newspoll three weeks ago. However, other polling this week has been better for the Coalition. Here is this week’s poll…
The government has announced changes to the Senate electoral system. The group voting ticket has been abandoned, and instead voters will need to number at least six groups above the line. However, there…
Donald Trump has won the South Carolina (SC) primary with 32.5% of the vote, followed by Marco Rubio at 22.5% and Ted Cruz at 22.3%. Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Ben Carson were a long way behind with less…
We have had four polls published in the last two weeks which imply that there is a swing to Labor, though the Coalition remains well ahead. Morgan is a week out of step with the other polls in the table…
At the New Hampshire (NH) primary held today, Donald Trump won 35% of the vote in the Republican contest, winning over twice as many votes as his next challenger, Ohio Governor John Kasich with 16%. Ted…
Religious right winger Ted Cruz has won the Republican Iowa Caucuses with 27.7% of the votes, to 24.3% for Donald Trump and 23.1% for the establishment favourite Marco Rubio. Ben Carson was a distant fourth…
The Iowa caucuses will be held on Monday 1 February. The caucuses begin at 7pm Iowa time (12 noon Tuesday Melbourne time). There is some attempt at persuasion before people vote at the caucuses, causing…
The US Presidential nominations are not decided by a national vote, but rather by a series of state by state contests that are held between February and June this year. These contests elect delegates to…